England’s win on Sunday has pushed them to 10 points. What does that mean for the semi-final race?
England’s win against India means that Sri Lanka are out. Even if they win their two remaining matches and England lose to New Zealand, Sri Lanka will finish on the same number of points as England, but with one lesser win (because of two rained out matches), which is the first tie-breaker for teams level on points.
With Australia already through, five teams are battling for the three remaining spots: India, New Zealand, England, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Among them, India and New Zealand are all but through because of their superior net run rate – explained in more detail below – while England, Pakistan and Bangladesh are fighting for one slot.
Can England still qualify if they lose to New Zealand on Wednesday?
Yes, they can. For that, India will have to beat Bangladesh, who in turn will have to beat Pakistan. Such a scenario would have both Bangladesh and Pakistan on nine points, with England qualifying as the fourth team with 10 points.
The weather is set fair at Chester le Street for Wednesday’s clash between England and New Zealand, but even if there is a no-result, England will still make it because of their superior net run rate, compared to Bangladesh and Pakistan.
What about Bangladesh and Pakistan? How has England’s win affected their chances?
The situation has become tougher for both teams as they now need 11 points to qualify, but as things stand, only one of them can get there because they play each other, on Friday.
For Pakistan to qualify, they have to beat Bangladesh and hope New Zealand beat England. Similarly, Bangladesh need to win their last two games and then hope New Zealand beat England. Neither side can afford a loss, however.
Are Bangladesh/ Pakistan out for sure if England beat New Zealand? What about the net-run-rate scenarios among the teams on 11 points?
If India lose their two remaining games and if New Zealand lose to England, then three teams – India, New Zealand and Pakistan/Bangladesh – will finish on 11, vying for two spots.
If Pakistan beat Bangladesh and are the third team on 11 points, then New Zealand and India will qualify, as Pakistan’s NRR of -0.792 is far too much of a handicap.
For them to nudge ahead of India, India will have to lose each of their matches by around 150 runs (or the sum of their losses will have to be around 300), and Pakistan will have to beat Bangladesh by around 200 runs.
For Pakistan to go past New Zealand, the result of the two relevant matches – Pakistan beating Bangladesh and England beating New Zealand – will have to be in the region of around 220 runs each.
For Bangladesh, the NRR situation isn’t quite as dire, but it is still rather improbable. If, for example, the results of the three matches – Bangladesh’s wins versus India and Pakistan, and India’s defeat against Sri Lanka – are in the region of around 75 runs each, then Bangladesh will go ahead of India on NRR.
To move past New Zealand, Bangladesh will need the results of the three relevant games – wins in their last two games, and New Zealand’s loss to England – to be in the region of around 80 runs.
So is it fair to assume that India and New Zealand are both practically through to the last four?
Yes, given the improbable NRR scenarios, India and New Zealand are both pretty much through. The priority for them would be in terms of securing the best possible positions among the top four: India can still finish on top if they win their last two and Australia lose to South Africa, but the top spot is beyond reach for New Zealand.
The more immediate battle, though, is among England, Pakistan and Bangladesh for the fourth spot.